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Growth in US hotel business continues to flirt around the zero line
24/Oct/2014
DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE USA - Business activity in U.S. hotels declined to a reading of 113.9 in September according to the latest reading of the Hotel Industry's Pulse (HIP) indicator. e-forecasting.com's HIP - a composite indicator that gauges monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry - fell by 0.1% in September after a flat performance with a change reading of 0% in August. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

HIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 1.1% in September, following a positive rate of 1.9% in August. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 40-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

The probability of the hotel industry being in recession, which is detected in real-time from HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 21.6 % in September, up from 16.9% reported in August. When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, the U.S. hotel industry has entered a recession.

"The latest data, including revisions, show that business activity for US hoteliers has stalled in the last six months" said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com. "The six-month growth rate, which confirms recessions when it crosses the zero line, has steadily declined from a peak reading of 6% in January to a 1.1% in September," Maria added.

Only one of the three demand and supply indicators of current business activity that constitute Hotel Industry's Pulse (HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in September: Spending on Hotels. The two of the three indicators of current business activity which had a negative or zero contribution to HIP's change in September were Hotel Jobs and Hotel Capacity

"In the last twelve months - September 2013 to September 2014 - overall economic activity, measured by e-forecasting.com's monthly U.S. GDP - rose by 1.6%. Over the same period, economic activity in U.S. Hotels, measured by HIP, increased by 2.8%" Maria added. - See more at: http://www.traveldailynews.com/news/article/62940/growth-in-us-hotel-business#sthash.sHW4z3aI.dpuf
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